Abstract:
A month before the Israeli election, the record of what Benjamin Netanyahu knew before October 7 has grown too large to dismiss. Israeli officials held the Hamas attack plan more than a year in advance. Egypt sent its intelligence chief to Israel eleven days before the attack. Haaretz and then the New York Times reported that the UAE president warned Netanyahu days before it. Netanyahu denies every warning. On October 7 the army invoked the Hannibal directive, and a tank fired on a house in Beeri where hostages were held. The Qatari prime minister now says Hamas agreed to hand over civilian hostages and Israel refused to entertain the offer. Since that day Israel has killed more than 74,000 people in Gaza, killed the leader of Hezbollah, watched Assad fall, gone to war with Iran and advanced annexation of the West Bank. Netanyahu has refused a state commission of inquiry and, according to the Associated Press, asked the UAE to deny its warning. This article sets out the reports, the denials and the ledger of what followed.
Main Article:
A leader who is warned and does nothing is either negligent or served by what follows. The ledger shows which.
On September 29 the prime minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, told Piers Morgan that Qatar had pressed Hamas to hand over the civilian hostages, that Hamas agreed, and that the Israeli government refused to even entertain the proposal. Asked about reports that the UAE had warned Netanyahu before the attack, he declined to comment on the position of another state and said the position of Qatar was clear. He also said: "There is no question that October 7th was a massacre and should be condemned," and that whoever was responsible for the war crimes committed in Gaza "is a war criminal" [1]. Israel has not published a response to the account.
The offer was not the first thing Israel was told.
More than a year before the attack, Israeli officials obtained the Hamas battle plan, known as Jericho Wall, and dismissed it as an aspiration beyond the reach of Hamas, according to the New York Times [2]. On September 26, 2023, eleven days before the attack, the Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel flew to Ben Gurion airport. The Atlantic reported, citing Israeli, Egyptian, Arab, American and European officials, that his message was summed up as a warning that unless Israel changed course, "Gaza is going to blow up in your faces." The office of the prime minister said Netanyahu had not spoken with or met the Egyptian intelligence chief "neither directly nor indirectly" [3].
Then came Abu Dhabi. On September 8 Haaretz reported that UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed warned Netanyahu days before October 7 and that Netanyahu did not brief his security chiefs [4]. On September 25 the New York Times reported, citing two sources, one of whom spoke with bin Zayed directly, that the warning came in late September 2023, before a security meeting on October 1 at which Netanyahu did not mention it. His office replied: "A total lie!" [5]. Netanyahu announced he would sue Haaretz and said his call log showed no trace of the conversation. The UAE said it does not comment on "conversations between government leaders" [6]. It did not deny the report.
The warnings came from inside as well. The Israeli broadcaster N12 reported, citing a security official, that the Shin Bet told Netanyahu eleven times in the months before the attack that Yahya Sinwar could be assassinated, and that each time he refused even to hold a discussion. His office said the opposite: that he demanded action and security officials blocked it [7].
Every warning is denied. None has been answered.
On October 7 about 1,200 people were killed in Israel, a figure Israel revised down from 1,400 after identifying remains [8]. The army invoked the Hannibal directive, the procedure for preventing captures even at the risk of the captive. Haaretz reported that it was applied at three army facilities, under the order that "not a single vehicle can return to Gaza," and that "it was entirely clear what that message meant" [9]. At the Pessi Cohen house in Kibbutz Beeri, where about fifteen hostages were held, a brigadier general authorised tank fire. The army confirmed that one hostage was killed by a tank shell and stated that the causes of death of thirteen others "have not been definitively identified" [10]. Israel has never published how many of its own citizens were killed by its own fire that day.
Then look at what followed. Israeli forces have killed more than 74,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to the Gaza health ministry [11]. In September 2024 Israel killed the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah [12]. In December 2024 the Assad government fell [13]. In February 2026 Israel and the United States went to war with Iran [14]. In July 2025 the Knesset voted 71 to 13 for a motion calling for sovereignty over the West Bank [15], and by 2026 Chatham House was describing an accelerating de facto annexation [16]. Goals the Israeli right had pursued for decades were reached in less than three years, each justified by October 7.
The accounting of what happened has been blocked. In November 2025 the government chose to set up its own investigation instead of a state commission of inquiry, a move the Movement for Quality Government called "a transparent attempt to evade a real and independent investigation" [17]. On September 27, 2026, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi. According to the Associated Press, citing anonymous sources, he asked bin Zayed to deny the Haaretz report. His office called the report fake news, and the Emirati statement on the visit did not deny the warning [18]. The Israeli election is on October 27, and the last Kan poll showed the two blocs tied at 52 seats each [19].
Set the reports beside the ledger. Some are confirmed on the record, such as the Qatari prime minister speaking on camera and the army confirming its own fire at Beeri. Some rest on sources the other side denies. Every one of them points in the same direction, and every one of them is met with the same response: denial, a lawsuit, a refused inquiry, a request for silence.
The position of Fikr Institute is that, taken together, these reports appear to be true. Israel knew what was coming. It held the plan a year in advance, it was warned by Egypt and by the UAE, and it had the chance to kill Sinwar and chose not to act. It did not act because what it stood to gain was greater than what it stood to lose. After October 7 Netanyahu and the far right beside him obtained what they had never been able to obtain before: a war without limit in Gaza, the destruction of Hezbollah leadership, the fall of Assad, war with Iran and a path to annexation, all justified by a single day. The Hannibal directive shows that the state was willing to kill its own people rather than let them be taken, and Fikr Institute holds that the number who died by Israeli fire that day is far greater than Israel has admitted, which is why the count has never been published. When Qatar offered the civilian hostages, Israel refused to even entertain it, because the hostages had become a reason for the war rather than its purpose. A government with nothing to hide would welcome a state commission of inquiry. This one refuses it, sues the newspaper that reported the warning and flies to Abu Dhabi to ask for a denial.
A leader who is warned and does nothing is either negligent or served by what follows. The ledger of what followed has answered.
References:
1. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, interview with Piers Morgan, Piers Morgan Uncensored, September 29, 2026, as reported by The Jerusalem Post, "Qatar PM Calls Benjamin Netanyahu a War Criminal, Rejects Claims Gaza Aid Funded Hamas," September 29, 2026.
2. The New York Times, report on the Jericho Wall attack plan, November 30, 2023, as reported by The Hill, "Israel Knew of Hamas Attack Plan More Than a Year Ago: Report," December 1, 2023.
3. Ynet News, "Egypt Spy Chief Flew to Israel 11 Days Before Oct. 7 with Warning on Gaza, Report Says," reporting The Atlantic, September 2026.
4. Haaretz, "Revealed: Netanyahu Received an Explicit Warning Days Before Oct. 7. He Did Not Brief Israel Security Chiefs," September 8, 2026.
5. Israel Hayom, "NYT: UAE President Warned Netanyahu of Hamas Attack Before Oct. 7," September 25, 2026.
6. Al Jazeera, "Netanyahu to Sue Haaretz over Claims UAE Warned Him Before October 7 Attack," September 10, 2026.
7. Yahoo News, reporting N12, "Netanyahu Turned Down 11 Plans to Kill Yahya Sinwar Before October 7," September 2026.
8. Al Jazeera, "Israel Revises Down Toll from October 7 Attack to Around 1,200," November 10, 2023.
9. Al Jazeera, "Israeli Army Used Hannibal Directive During October 7 Hamas Attack: Report," reporting Haaretz, July 7, 2024.
10. The Times of Israel, "Failure and Slaughter: IDF Beeri Probe Shows Army Colossal Errors, Residents Bravery," July 2024.
11. Associated Press, "Palestinian Death Toll in Gaza War Rises Above 74,000 Since the War Began," September 27, 2026.
12. Al Jazeera, report on the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, September 28, 2024.
13. Reuters, report on the fall of the Assad government in Damascus, December 8, 2024.
14. Al Jazeera, "Iran Touts Hormuz Attacks as Oil Flows Increase Despite Tensions," September 28, 2026.
15. The Times of Israel, "Knesset Votes 71 to 13 for Non Binding Motion Calling to Annex West Bank," July 23, 2025.
16. Chatham House, "Israel Accelerating De Facto Annexation of the West Bank Has Dangerous Implications," April 2026.
17. The Times of Israel, "Government Moves to Appoint Own Probe into Oct. 7, Nixing State Commission of Inquiry," November 16, 2025.
18. The Times of Israel, "Netanyahu Flew to UAE to Ask MBZ to Deny Giving Him Pre October 7 Warning of Hamas Attack, Sources," reporting the Associated Press, September 28, 2026.
19. The Jerusalem Post, "Israel Election Poll: Eisenkot Yashar Leads as Netanyahu, Opposition Blocs Tied at 52 Seats Each," September 28, 2026.