Newest first. The archive preserves all published research so no article disappears.
Musk called USAID a criminal organization on X while fronting DOGE. The auditor found 6,780 of 7,510 awards cut and most savings unverifiable. The public megaphone was shut. The private one kept speaking...
Online speculation counts down to war on Iran. It is wrong on carriers, oil, Israel, uranium and Congress, and every error points toward war. Fikr Institute checks each claim and sets out the real decision points...
A US missile killed at least 175 people, most of them children, at a girls school in Minab. Voters punished the war eight months later, for the price of fuel. The vote changed the managers. The money and the war stayed...
Netanyahu now blames foreign countries for his defeat. Kerry once said the army that removed Morsi was restoring democracy. Five ballots, from Cairo to Jerusalem, show one rule: the vote counts only when it agrees...
For twenty years Washington claimed it was building democracy in Afghanistan. Then it overruled the vote, negotiated without the elected government, and said it was never the mission. Now voters at home learn the same lesson...
The vote produced two calendars: sixty days with a lame duck Congress and a president free of the ballot, then two years of divided government and the veto. The danger for Iran, the Gulf and Pakistan lies in the first...
Democrats took both chambers and 60 percent said attacking Iran was wrong. But the new Congress sits January 3, a veto needs 67 votes, and the wave replaced the Republicans who voted to restrain the war. The war did not get the m…
Would a nuclear strike on Iran stay in Iran? US government scientists say an earth penetrator cannot contain the fallout, the only published model sends it into Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, and winter winds over Iran blow eas…
Washington lost the image it lives on: that its threats are real. Restoring deterrence means a demonstration, and every stage on offer is Muslim ground, from Iran to the Arab soil under US bases. Three rungs, and who pays for eac…
An unverified claim says Trump may nuke an Iranian mountain site. He has ruled it out. But every line broken in this war, from nuclear sites to refineries to tankers, was crossed again. The last taboo would be too...
Diesel is up from $3.76 to $6.35 since the Iran war, yet most Republicans still back Trump. Obama ordered 563 strikes and now condemns an unnecessary war on the campaign trail. That is the art of stupidity, and why tomorrow is no…
A Russian linked deepfake needed a forged newscast and was taken down. The accusation that a Muslim Senate nominee is a jihadist needed only his name, came from the president, and was removed by no one. That is where ignorance pa…
Before one vote is counted, Washington has sued to block an Alaska Senate result, a governor hints he may not send it on, and Trump will accept only a fair result. That seat helps decide the Iran war, though no Senate can end it …
Trump calls Abdul El Sayed a jihadist. Fact checkers rate it Pants on Fire. The evidence behind the charge is a 2012 statement backing Morsi, the elected president of Egypt, whose overthrow Washington called restoring democracy...
AP found Iranian strikes damaged 26 sites holding US equipment across seven Arab states. Now Washington moves assets out of the Gulf, sends new air defence to Israel and tells its hosts to brace. The bases are American. The groun…
Washington approved 500 Patriots for Ukraine, paid by Europe, that may take years to arrive. The same week, a Patriot battery moved to Israel, and the Gulf, which paid cash for hundreds more, was told to brace. Delivery follows p…
A tanker was hit with limpet mines in Hormuz two months after Washington declared the lanes clear. Washington, Tehran and an unconfirmed Iran and Oman deal now draw three maps of one strait. In the Black Sea, Türkiye kept outside…
Taiz, a city of a million, is in famine, its governor says. A road blown up on October 18 cut its food, fuel and water. On October 26, the Muslim powers met in Tehran over missiles and Hormuz. The accounts published so far do not…
Twice in this war, talks were set for the days the bombs fell: June 2025 and February 2026. Now Vance proposes talks for the week the Gulf has been told to brace. And the same Iranian official got the letter one day before the Sa…
Two million Arab citizens are offered as proof Israel is no apartheid state. They voted in record numbers and won 19 seats. In government, those seats could win budgets, safety and fewer demolitions. They cannot change who the st…
Netanyahu lost his majority and blamed the Arab voter, speaking of a Zionist majority that subtracts a fifth of the citizens. Likud prepared fraud challenges before anyone voted. Trump, at 31 percent, has made the midterms condit…
Netanyahu lost his majority and blamed the Arab voter, speaking of a Zionist majority that subtracts a fifth of the citizens. Likud prepared fraud challenges before anyone voted. Trump, at 31 percent, has made the midterms condit…
An Israeli strategist said Sunni states would not unite without a Palestinian state. They did, after Gaza and the Israeli strike on Doha. Israel calls the pact a threat. It gains only if the pact is turned into a war on Iran. It …
Same day, two UN findings: Russia committed crimes against humanity by cutting power in Ukraine; Israel still commits genocidal acts in Gaza. The ICC used the same charge for both. Russia got 21 sanctions packages. Israel got arm…
Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish security chiefs met Iran in Tehran as Houthi missiles still fall on Riyadh. Netanyahu names a Shia axis and a Sunni axis as enemies. Both sat at one table, a day before Israel votes. Who loses if they…
Kremlin says a Putin, Trump and Xi summit is being prepared for November 18. Beijing has not confirmed. Putin wants a new Yalta without Ukraine, and paid in diesel weeks before the midterms. Every date in his diplomacy falls afte…
Executive Summary: Polls put Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu. But on Iran, a Palestinian state and the Muslim powers, his rivals share the same doctrine. And the Arab votes that could decide the outcome have been ruled out of any gov…
Executive Summary: Twice before, US diplomats left the region days before strikes on Iran. This week they left Saudi Arabia and cut staff in four more states, as strike plans for after November 3 emerge. The evacuation clock is r…
Executive Summary: Oil rose before the bombs fell on Iran. The war gave Big Oil record profits. Now, days before the midterms, the pump price falls while crude nears 100 dollars. From Kabul to Ankara to Washington, cheap fuel bef…
Executive Summary: Jared Kushner holds no post and discloses nothing, yet negotiates Gaza, Iran and Ukraine while his firm runs billions from Gulf governments and profits from Israeli arms. A new book alleges secret accounts. The…
Executive Summary: A convicted sex offender stayed welcome in banks, ministries, campuses and royal homes for a decade. The Epstein files show a broker of money and access, and UN experts say the abuses may be crimes against huma…
Executive Summary: At Jamal, Muslim historians record, the leaders were close to peace when others started the fight. Today a disputed drone war drains Saudi Arabia and ties down Türkiye and Pakistan, the same states Israeli lead…
Executive Summary: Dozens of leaders marched in Paris for a magazine that mocked the Prophet. Tens of thousands of children, hundreds of journalists, medics and UN staff killed in Gaza and Lebanon got no march. Instead, Paris, Be…
Executive Summary: Five states, not seven. Badr and Mecca are not a new bloc. They are something more useful to Washington: partners taking on the defence of Saudi skies and pipelines that an America short of interceptors will no…
Executive Summary: Dozens of Israeli jets flew through Syrian and Iraqi skies to the border of Iran and turned back. Some US officials suspect Israel hoped Iran would fire. Trump pledged no attack before the midterms. His pledge …
Executive Summary: Netanyahu ordered a multi day campaign against Iran for October 10, seventeen days before Israelis vote. Trump stopped it to protect his midterms. The war was postponed, not cancelled, and the brake comes off w…
Executive Summary: Hegseth flew unannounced to Israel to discuss resuming war on Iran. But Netanyahu wants quiet until October 27, Trump has promised no strike before November 3, and Tehran is stalling talks to deny Trump a win. …
Executive Summary: French schoolchildren marched for teachers. Then shops burned, and the debate became curfews and protest bans. Paris condemned Tehran for repressing protesters, and Europe questioned Islamabad after its riots. …
Executive Summary: Egypt moves to defend Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan activate the Mecca pact, Washington shares targets. Every partner draws the same line: defend the kingdom, do not fight in Yemen. Riyadh is building a sh…
Executive Summary: Romanian F-16s shot down two Geran drones near Sulina after ten days of attacks on ships near NATO shores. Some suspect Kyiv is trying to drag NATO in. The record points to Moscow, but the effect serves Kyiv: a…
Executive Summary: Albertans vote Monday on ten questions. Separation is likely to fail. The questions on charging and restricting temporary residents may pass, on wording a pollster says overstates support, for a deficit driven …
Executive Summary: In the same year, with the same weapons, the TPLF lost Mekelle in weeks while the Houthis struck Riyadh airport 20 times in eleven days. Drones favour the side with a supply line, and punish movements that figh…
Executive Summary: Washington lifted sanctions on the Eritrean army on September 18. Days later the TPLF went to war, and Eritrean troops crossed into Ethiopia. Within weeks Mekelle fell and Ethiopian tanks reached the Eritrean b…
Executive Summary: Riyadh airport was attacked at least 20 times in eleven days while the coalition said 100 jets were striking Yemen. Seven years of air power failed before. The Houthis do not need to win. They need to survive a…
Executive Summary: The 100,000 troops in the Saudi plan are Yemeni, not Saudi. Riyadh supplies jets and money while its airport closes and its investment showcase goes hybrid. The only modern model of total victory is Sri Lanka i…
Executive Summary: Azerbaijan is turning hijab wearing girls away from school, and the world is quiet. Afghanistan has seen this: reforms pushed from above in 1928 and 1978, then closed schools. The state that forces the scarf of…
Executive Summary: Ukraine voted at war in 2014 and 2019, yet Kyiv now says a vote must wait for a ceasefire only Putin can grant. Polls point to a reason: Zelensky leads a crowded first round but loses every runoff tested. The w…
Executive Summary: In February a Starlink speed cap blinded Russian units. In October a similar switch hit Ukraine, days after Trump demanded an end to refinery strikes. Service is back and the strikes have resumed. Ukraine holds…
Executive Summary: Aliyev told Türkiye to know its place over a school hijab ban: we paid for everything we acquired. Behind the rebuke stand oil for Israel, a US strategic charter and reported Israeli units near Iran. The pumpki…
Executive Summary: No poll gives Netanyahu a majority before October 27. His army chief has twice warned Washington that war could delay the vote. A war fought now would also delay the October 7 inquiry. Netanyahu does not need t…
Executive Summary: Netanyahu offered to fight the Houthis for Riyadh and was refused. His army chief warned a strike could delay the October 27 election. What if the Houthi war serves both sides of the enmity, and Netanyahu most …
Executive Summary: Houthi missiles killed at least 12 at Riyadh airport as Saudi air defences failed. The Patriot and THAAD stocks Gulf capitals rely on were rapidly used up early in the US war on Iran. Riyadh is defending itself…
Executive Summary: Paris with Hanoi in 1973, Doha with the Taliban in 2020, an Oman deal with the Houthis in 2025. America keeps ending its wars at a table with the enemy it set out to destroy. Seven months into the Iran war, Teh…
Executive Summary: In four days, Ukrainian drones shut three Yandex data centres, including those housing its AI supercomputers. In the Gulf, AWS still cannot restore data lost to Iranian strikes six months ago. Unlike a refinery…
Executive Summary: India detained more than 2,000 people protesting the removal of about 130 million names from voter rolls. A day later, Pakistan suspended the elected government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. One edits the voters, the …
Executive Summary: More contractors than soldiers died in the American wars after 9/11: 8,189 to 7,053. In Congo, an American led force deployed under a US brokered deal was ambushed. Washington says it has no contract. The flag …
Executive Summary: A century after Britain signed its treaty with Ibn Saud and backed the revolt against the Ottomans, Riyadh has invoked a pact named after Mecca and called in Türkiye and Pakistan. The heirs of the Ottomans are …
Executive Summary: Russia publicly rejects an energy truce while privately asking Washington for sanctions relief in exchange for one. With refining at a twenty year low and fuel exports banned, the price Moscow has named shows w…
Executive Summary: Four Russian military satellites chased a commercial radar satellite that has produced thousands of images used by Ukraine to plan strikes. As Ukrainian drones hit a Russian refinery every three days, Moscow ha…
Executive Summary: On September 18, Washington lifted sanctions on the Eritrean army. Nineteen days later it crossed into Ethiopia. The Iran war made the Red Sea coast vital, and a small state moved against a giant once the leash…
Executive Summary: No bomber was hit and no drone was found, yet a dozen US B-1s left RAF Fairford over a suspected Iran linked drone plot reportedly modelled on Ukraine and its Spiderweb strike. The perimeter of the Iran war now…
Executive Summary: Palestinian statistics show Gaza lost 254,000 people, and the dead, missing and departed explain only 182,000. Israel never counted how many of its own died by its own fire on October 7. One state holds both le…
Hind Rajab was six. The paramedics sent to save her were killed too. Three years on, courts have named starvation, murder and persecution, and the warrants still stand. The response has been to sanction the judges, not to arrest …
On October 7, Hamas wanted its captives alive. The Israeli army ordered that no vehicle return to Gaza, whoever was inside. Three years later, Israel has never published how many of its own died by its own fire, and the inquiry w…
Saudi backed forces say they retook Mokha and the coast at Bab al Mandab. The Houthis deny it and are striking Saudi airports. The bigger change is political: Riyadh now owns the anti Houthi camp alone, and every fracture inside …
Ships are sinking in the Black Sea, tankers are hit daily in Hormuz and Bab al Mandab is a battlefield. Meanwhile the state that has policed free navigation for decades is blockading Venezuela, Cuba and Iran. The sea has acquired…
Gulf states bought the most advanced air defences on the market. In the Iran war they ran short of interceptors, and Washington rationed the refills. From Moscow to Riyadh, the lesson is the same: whoever owns the factory owns th…
A UN report says more than 200,000 tonnes of explosives fell on Gaza in under two years. Israel counts targets, Washington counts shipments, and no one publishes what was dropped, by type, on whom. Now 60,000 more heavy bombs are…
On October 5 the Makkah alliance ordered the rapid deployment of forces into Saudi Arabia, two months after signing and before its machinery exists. The pattern is visible: those who pay send no soldiers, those who are paid send …
Türkiye now designs and builds drones, drone carriers, tanks, frigates and air defence, and proved its drones in Karabakh and Idlib. Its exports hit a record in 2025. But its tanks, drones and fighters still depend on foreign eng…
Saudi Arabia is preparing an offensive of up to 100,000 Yemeni troops to retake Bab al Mandab. Pakistani air defence, Turkish drones, American targeting and French soldiers fill every layer except Saudi infantry. The goal is a co…
Iranian media say the IRGC Navy hit seven tankers in five days. Maritime monitors call the weapons unknown projectiles. Iranian claims, warnings and targets line up, and no evidence yet points elsewhere. The story is still develo…
Iran says it can now strike a moving target with a long range ballistic missile. Washington says its carriers evaded every attack. From Ain al Asad to Al Udeid, American denials have been revised upward each time the evidence arr…
Pakistan has sent soldiers to defend Arab states since 1970 and now has 30,000 to 40,000 in Saudi Arabia. The Makkah pact promises that an attack on one is an attack on all, yet its text is unpublished and nothing defines what Ri…
More than 1,000 Tomahawks and 1,000 Patriot interceptors spent, rebuilding into 2030, tankers hit on the ground. The Iran war shows American deterrence is advanced but scarce, while Chinese arms arrive cheap, plentiful and with f…
Israel named a jihadist motive before any investigator had one. Armed Israelis were aboard a foreign airliner. Saudi Arabia took custody of an Israeli emergency. And it came 27 days before an election Netanyahu cannot afford to l…
Crude is creeping back through Hormuz, but diesel is still scarce. With midterms five weeks away, Washington is pressing Europe to empty its emergency reserves while threatening to cut off the American diesel Europe now depends o…
In nine days Washington declined to fight the Houthis, France sent radars to a Saudi port, Muslim allies offered words, Netanyahu flew to Abu Dhabi and the last US troops left Iraq. America is not leaving. It is hiring guards...
Egypt warned him. The UAE warned him. His own analysts held the attack plan a year early. Qatar says Israel refused a hostage offer. Now Netanyahu blocks an independent inquiry and flew to Abu Dhabi to ask for a denial...
Twenty three years after an invasion sold on false claims, the last American troops leave Iraq. The state they dismantled has not recovered, its minorities are scattered, and its oil money still sits in New York...
The United States makes 5.3 million barrels a day of diesel and heating oil and uses 3.6 million. Yet Louisiana declared an emergency. The shortage is not in production. It is in where the barrels go, and in how Washington now us…
In 1992 the Pentagon wrote that no new rival should emerge and named Western Europe as a region able to generate global power. Since then Europe lost Russian gas and Gulf fuel, Venezuelan oil passed to American hands, and Washing…
Washington helped Ukraine burn Russian refineries, then pressed Kyiv to stop. It blockades Iran, escorts the Gulf and now weighs cutting diesel to its own allies. Control is not destroying supply. It is deciding who receives it...
It was known: Washington named China its only true rival. It was planned: energy became a declared lever of power. It was predicted: Hormuz would hurt Asia. Then Venezuela, Iran and Russian refineries fell, and the oil tap moved …
The US government documented that Hormuz fed Asia, not America. Banks modelled the price shock. Washington built the export machine. Then war closed the strait, and American petroleum exports hit a record 13.6 million barrels a d…
On September 24, Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly under an active ICC warrant while UN agencies count hundreds of their own staff dead, dozens of their facilities destroyed and hospitals reduced to mass graves...
Saudi Arabia already fields Patriot and THAAD, and Britain and France have both sent more interceptors. Yet on September 19 Turkiye said it was ready to meet Saudi military needs. Owning an advanced missile is not the same as own…
On September 25, Yemen called for general mobilization against the Houthis while Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani chiefs met in Riyadh to deepen intelligence sharing, coordination and capability integration. One mobilizes men. The ot…
PTI called a march. A suicide attack hit a police mosque in Kohat. Within a day an Afghan bomber was named, with no public basis. Then came detentions, containers and strikes on Afghanistan. The same sequence ran in November and …
Everyone argues about whether four ageing leaders are reckless. The question nobody asks is how few people it now takes to end a civilisation, how little time they are given, and why the arrangement was built that way...
Hormuz now carries under a quarter of its pre war oil, Bab al Mandab carries more than before, and more crude is going round the Cape of Good Hope than through either. The oil was not stopped. It was made to travel further...
Rich countries are required by treaty to hold ninety days of fuel. Egypt and Pakistan are required to hold nothing. The reserve that would end the rationing costs less than one quarter of this war has already cost them...
Ukraine is destroying the machines that turn Russian crude into diesel. The Gulf war is doing the same to shipping. Nobody asks who pays, and the answer is the countries that own neither refineries nor ships...
Eighty confirmed attacks, twenty two dead seafarers, and almost no published findings. Everyone argues about who fired. Nobody asks why, seven months into this war, no one has been made to find out...
Beijing is reported to have offered Washington help in pressing Iran in return for an end to weapons for Taiwan. Two wars six thousand kilometres apart are being priced against each other by people who live in neither...
When American interest sits with the ally, Washington fights beside it. When it does not, Washington talks to the enemy or does nothing. Kuwait, Kabul, Mosul and now Riyadh are the same rule producing different outcomes...
North Korea fired two missiles in the week Seoul offered a staged deal. Three Muslim states disarmed under Western assurance and were invaded, bombed or overthrown. Pyongyang read that record and reversed the order...
Ukraine has dropped kamikaze ground robots more than ten kilometres behind Russian lines. No machine chose a target. But the human is being removed from war one step at a time, and no government will announce the step that matter…
Washington holds Hormuz. Europe is gathering warships at Bab al Mandab. A British tanker keeps British built Saudi jets in the air between them. The two gates of the Gulf are being secured by powers from outside the region...
The machine gun at Omdurman, the tank at Gaza, thermal sights in Iraq. Each time, the Muslim world learned the new weapon as its target. Artificial intelligence is now choosing targets in Iran and Gaza, and the pattern is repeati…
