STRATEGIC GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSISSaturday, November 7, 2026

Intelligence Update

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The Pumpkin Has Ripened: Azerbaijan Tells Türkiye to Know Its Place
Intelligence UpdateNarrative vs RealityOct 14, 2026

The Pumpkin Has Ripened: Azerbaijan Tells Türkiye to Know Its Place

Executive Summary: Aliyev told Türkiye to know its place over a school hijab ban: we paid for everything we acquired. Behind the rebuke stand oil for Israel, a US strategic charter and reported Israeli units near Iran. The pumpki…

The Flag Comes Off the Uniform: How the Great Powers Privatised War
Intelligence UpdateNarrative vs RealityOct 10, 2026

The Flag Comes Off the Uniform: How the Great Powers Privatised War

Executive Summary: More contractors than soldiers died in the American wars after 9/11: 8,189 to 7,053. In Congo, an American led force deployed under a US brokered deal was ambushed. Washington says it has no contract. The flag …

27 Days Before the Vote: The Flight Netanyahu Needed
Intelligence UpdateNarrative vs RealityOct 1, 2026

27 Days Before the Vote: The Flight Netanyahu Needed

Israel named a jihadist motive before any investigator had one. Armed Israelis were aboard a foreign airliner. Saudi Arabia took custody of an Israeli emergency. And it came 27 days before an election Netanyahu cannot afford to l…

Your War Is Their Currency: Iran and Taiwan on the Same Ledger
Intelligence UpdateNarrative vs RealitySep 24, 2026

Your War Is Their Currency: Iran and Taiwan on the Same Ledger

Beijing is reported to have offered Washington help in pressing Iran in return for an end to weapons for Taiwan. Two wars six thousand kilometres apart are being priced against each other by people who live in neither...

A Guarantee Lasts Only as Long as the Interest Behind It
Intelligence UpdateNarrative vs RealitySep 23, 2026

A Guarantee Lasts Only as Long as the Interest Behind It

When American interest sits with the ally, Washington fights beside it. When it does not, Washington talks to the enemy or does nothing. Kuwait, Kabul, Mosul and now Riyadh are the same rule producing different outcomes...

They Say It Could Kill Us All. They Are Still Building It.
Intelligence UpdateNarrative vs RealitySep 22, 2026

They Say It Could Kill Us All. They Are Still Building It.

The people who build artificial intelligence now say openly that it could end humanity. None of their companies has stopped. They have named the price at which they would stop, and set it where it will never be paid...

The Blockade That Cannot Win What It Claims to Want
Intelligence UpdateGlobalApr 13, 2026

The Blockade That Cannot Win What It Claims to Want

There is a pattern in the late stages of a failing campaign that historians have documented across enough wars to give it a name. When military force has not produced political submission, and when negotiation has not produced ag…

Intelligence UpdateMiddle EastApr 1, 2026

They Shot Him on Camera. Then Claimed It Did Not Happen.

A Syrian journalist covering an Iranian drone crash in Quneitra was shot by Israeli forces. The Committee to Protect Journalists has documented the same pattern across four countries.